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| #1200986 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 29.Sep.2024) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 Joyce`s center continues to be exposed to the southwest of its convective mass as shear persists across the circulation. There`s generally been a slight reduction in the objective and subjective estimates from the last advisory, so the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt. The storm is moving erratically northwestward at about 5 kt. Joyce is still forecast to turn northward on Monday due to a deep-layer trough over the north-central Atlantic, with only minor disagreements on the exact longitude of recurvature. The new forecast is a touch west of the last one, consistent with the consensus guidance. The intensity forecast seems straightforward with unabating shear and plentiful environmental dry air causing gradual weakening, with no significant change from the last NHC forecast. The remnant low might dissipate into a trough sooner than shown here, similar to the latest ECMWF forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 22.2N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 22.6N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 23.3N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 24.0N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1800Z 25.0N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/0600Z 26.2N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
