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#1200986 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 29.Sep.2024)
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024
Joyce`s center continues to be exposed to the southwest of its
convective mass as shear persists across the circulation. There`s
generally been a slight reduction in the objective and subjective
estimates from the last advisory, so the initial wind speed is set
to 35 kt.
The storm is moving erratically northwestward at about 5 kt. Joyce
is still forecast to turn northward on Monday due to a deep-layer
trough over the north-central Atlantic, with only minor
disagreements on the exact longitude of recurvature. The new
forecast is a touch west of the last one, consistent with the
consensus guidance. The intensity forecast seems straightforward
with unabating shear and plentiful environmental dry air causing
gradual weakening, with no significant change from the last NHC
forecast. The remnant low might dissipate into a trough sooner
than shown here, similar to the latest ECMWF forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 22.2N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 22.6N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 23.3N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 24.0N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/1800Z 25.0N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/0600Z 26.2N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake |
