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| #1201022 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 29.Sep.2024) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2024 The exposed center of Joyce is completely devoid of convection, with only a few intermittent bursts noted in satellite imagery during the past several hours. If the system is unable to generate and sustain organized convection soon, it will degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone on Monday. A partial scatterometer pass indicates that winds over the eastern part of the circulation have diminished, and the satellite intensity estimates have continued to fall this evening. Based on these data and the degraded satellite presentation, Joyce is downgraded to a 30-kt depression. The storm is still moving northwestward (310/5 kt), but is forecast to turn northward soon toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly left of the previous one based on current motion trends. Joyce is surrounded by a dry air mass and is expected to face continued southwesterly shear, making it unlikely for the system to sustain organized deep convection going forward. Thus, the updated NHC forecast shows Joyce degenerating to a post-tropical remnant low by late Monday. However, this could occur even sooner if convection does not regenerate overnight. The global models agree that Joyce should open into a trough and dissipate by Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 22.3N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 22.9N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 23.6N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1200Z 24.5N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0000Z 25.7N 49.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
