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Landfall of Particularly Dangerous Hurricane Milton near Siesta Key, FL. Catastophic damage (surge, inland flooding, tor and wind) continues. #FLwx #HurricaneMilton
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Helene) , Major: 13 (Helene) Florida - Any: 13 (Helene) Major: 13 (Helene)
22.6N 49.3W
Wind: 105MPH
Pres: 972mb
Moving:
Nw at 8 mph
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28.1N 81.3W
Wind: 90MPH
Pres: 975mb
Moving:
Ene at 16 mph
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#1201068 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 30.Sep.2024)
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Joyce`s center is mostly exposed, with only a few cells of deep
convection forming intermittently within the circulation. Joyce
continues to experience strong southwesterly vertical wind shear
due to a large upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The
current intensity is held at 30 kt which is similar to the objective
AIDT and DPRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS. This may be a generous
estimate, however, given the current appearance of the system.

The cyclone has not moved much with only a slightly south of
westward drift noted, and the current motion estimate is 260/2 kt.
It seems that the weakened system is now being steered primarily by
the low-level flow. Therefore the official track forecast is
slower than the previous predictions. This is similar to the
motion implied by the latest ECMWF forecast fields which show a
very weak system drifting generally northward for the next day or
two.

Given the lack of convection, the environment of dry air, and
the expectation of persistent shear, Joyce should soon degenerate
into a remnant low. The official intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one. The remnant cyclone should dissipate in 48-60
hours if not sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 22.1N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 22.8N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/0600Z 23.6N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/1800Z 24.7N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/0600Z 25.8N 49.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch