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Landfall of Particularly Dangerous Hurricane Milton near Siesta Key, FL. Catastophic damage (surge, inland flooding, tor and wind) continues. #FLwx #HurricaneMilton
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Helene) , Major: 13 (Helene) Florida - Any: 13 (Helene) Major: 13 (Helene)
22.6N 49.3W
Wind: 105MPH
Pres: 972mb
Moving:
Nw at 8 mph
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28.1N 81.3W
Wind: 90MPH
Pres: 975mb
Moving:
Ene at 16 mph
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#1201100 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 AM 30.Sep.2024)
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Joyce continues to struggle to remain a tropical depression, having
a fully exposed low-level center displaced to the west of pulsing
deep convection. This displacement is a result of strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear ahead of a central Atlantic
upper-level trough. With no recent surface observations or
scatterometer wind data available, 30 kt will remain the initial
intensity, reflecting the subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB and
SAB.

The depression has meandered this morning, and the current motion
estimate is an uncertain 360/2 kt. The official track forecast
depicts a slow northward motion until Joyce fully dissipates in 48
h, similar to the previous track forecast.

Continued shear coupled with persistent dry air should increasingly
inhibit organized convection, leading to Joyce degenerating into a
remnant low soon. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one showing Joyce becoming a remnant low in 12 h with total
dissipation in about 48 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 22.4N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 23.1N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 01/1200Z 24.1N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/0000Z 25.3N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1200Z 27.0N 49.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Konarik/Papin