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#1201151 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 30.Sep.2024)
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024
Kirk is continuing to become better organized this afternoon on
satellite imagery with a large burst of convection on the northern
side of the center and an expanding outflow pattern aloft. All
intensity estimates are rising, and the initial wind speed is set to
50 kt, near the CIMSS-AiDT and DMINT values.
The motion of Kirk is about the same as before, westward at about
10 kt. Very little change was made to the track forecast, with
below-average model spread across the entire period due to
well-defined steering flow from the subtropical high over the
east-central Atlantic. Kirk should gradually move more
west-northwestward by tomorrow and turn northwestward midweek, with
a north-northwest turn likely by the end of the forecast period.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be quite conducive for
strengthening during the next several days, with warm waters, a
moist mid-level environment and low shear in forecast. Rapid
intensification remains a notable possibility if this system can
close off its inner core, though the latest microwave data shows
that any formative eyewall is still open. Later on, the exact peak
intensity is a bit of a mystery, since sometimes these favorable
conditions can result in most of the energy going toward producing a
large, but not necessarily stronger hurricane. Regardless, all
signs point to Kirk becoming quite a large and powerful hurricane,
possibly category 4, later this week and remaining intense for days.
The new forecast is similar to the previous one and is between the
dynamical model consensus and the statistical-dynamical models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 13.6N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 13.9N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 14.5N 39.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 15.6N 41.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 16.8N 42.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 19.3N 45.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 21.8N 47.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 25.5N 49.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake |
