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| #1201151 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 30.Sep.2024) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Kirk is continuing to become better organized this afternoon on satellite imagery with a large burst of convection on the northern side of the center and an expanding outflow pattern aloft. All intensity estimates are rising, and the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, near the CIMSS-AiDT and DMINT values. The motion of Kirk is about the same as before, westward at about 10 kt. Very little change was made to the track forecast, with below-average model spread across the entire period due to well-defined steering flow from the subtropical high over the east-central Atlantic. Kirk should gradually move more west-northwestward by tomorrow and turn northwestward midweek, with a north-northwest turn likely by the end of the forecast period. Environmental conditions are forecast to be quite conducive for strengthening during the next several days, with warm waters, a moist mid-level environment and low shear in forecast. Rapid intensification remains a notable possibility if this system can close off its inner core, though the latest microwave data shows that any formative eyewall is still open. Later on, the exact peak intensity is a bit of a mystery, since sometimes these favorable conditions can result in most of the energy going toward producing a large, but not necessarily stronger hurricane. Regardless, all signs point to Kirk becoming quite a large and powerful hurricane, possibly category 4, later this week and remaining intense for days. The new forecast is similar to the previous one and is between the dynamical model consensus and the statistical-dynamical models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 13.6N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 13.9N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.5N 39.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 15.6N 41.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 16.8N 42.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 19.3N 45.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 21.8N 47.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 25.5N 49.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
