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We are closely tracking Tropical Storm #Milton forecast to be a very dangerous hurricane as it strikes Florida mid next week #Flwx Flhurricane.com
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 9 (Helene) , Major: 9 (Helene) Florida - Any: 9 (Helene) Major: 9 (Helene)
31.3N 49.3W
Wind: 115MPH
Pres: 951mb
Moving:
N at 20 mph
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12.4N 36.9W
Wind: 80MPH
Pres: 985mb
Moving:
Nw at 9 mph
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23.0N 95.1W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Nne at 4 mph
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#1201187 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 30.Sep.2024)
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

Satellite images indicate Kirk is an asymmetric tropical storm with
curved bands of deep convection primarily over the eastern half of
the circulation. Recent scatterometer winds indicate the center of
Kirk is slightly north of previous estimates, with a large
tropical-storm-force wind field over the eastern semicircle. Based
on the scatterometer data and a blend of the various satellite
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt.

Kirk is now moving west-northwestward (285/10 kt). This general
motion should continue for the next couple of days while Kirk moves
around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge
over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn toward the northwest is
anticipated during the middle part of the week, followed by a
recurvature to the north-northwest and north over the central
Atlantic by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The track guidance
remains in very good agreement, and only minor adjustments were made
to the NHC track forecast.

Very warm waters, weak vertical wind shear, and a moist environment
should support steady to perhaps rapid strengthening of Kirk during
the next several days. The tropical storm is currently broad and
lacks an inner core, but the forecast shows a faster rate of
strengthening by midweek as Kirk is expected to become better
organized within this favorable environment. No significant changes
were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which lies on the higher
side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the
statistical-dynamical aids and some of the regional hurricane
models. The models agree that the wind field of Kirk will grow quite
large later in the period as the cyclone gains latitude over open
waters. Ultimately, Kirk is forecast to become a large, major
hurricane over the open central Atlantic later this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 14.4N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 14.8N 38.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 15.8N 40.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 16.8N 42.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 18.0N 43.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 19.2N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 20.4N 46.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 23.3N 48.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 27.5N 49.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart