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| #1201187 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 30.Sep.2024) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Satellite images indicate Kirk is an asymmetric tropical storm with curved bands of deep convection primarily over the eastern half of the circulation. Recent scatterometer winds indicate the center of Kirk is slightly north of previous estimates, with a large tropical-storm-force wind field over the eastern semicircle. Based on the scatterometer data and a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt. Kirk is now moving west-northwestward (285/10 kt). This general motion should continue for the next couple of days while Kirk moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn toward the northwest is anticipated during the middle part of the week, followed by a recurvature to the north-northwest and north over the central Atlantic by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The track guidance remains in very good agreement, and only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast. Very warm waters, weak vertical wind shear, and a moist environment should support steady to perhaps rapid strengthening of Kirk during the next several days. The tropical storm is currently broad and lacks an inner core, but the forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening by midweek as Kirk is expected to become better organized within this favorable environment. No significant changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which lies on the higher side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the statistical-dynamical aids and some of the regional hurricane models. The models agree that the wind field of Kirk will grow quite large later in the period as the cyclone gains latitude over open waters. Ultimately, Kirk is forecast to become a large, major hurricane over the open central Atlantic later this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 14.4N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 14.8N 38.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 15.8N 40.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 16.8N 42.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 18.0N 43.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 19.2N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 20.4N 46.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 23.3N 48.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 27.5N 49.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
