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| #1201373 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 02.Oct.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 Satellite imagery over the past 6 to 12 hours indicates a gradual improvement in the organization of Kirk`s central dense overcast. The low-level center is likely underneath the southern portion of the central convective area. The cyclone is also growing in size. Convective banding in the southeast semicircle sprawls out a far distance away from the center. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 65 to 77 kt, while objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are ranging from 61 to 71 kt. The initial intensity is nudged up to 70 kt based on an average of the subjective estimates. Kirk has been moving northwestward, or 305/12 kt. A similar heading at perhaps a slightly slower forward speed is expected through Thursday as Kirk is steered by a subtropical ridge. By the end of the week, Kirk will gradually turn northward in between an approaching deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic and a subtropical ridge to the east of the hurricane. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected by the end of the weekend, and the models remain in good agreement on this scenario. The new NHC track forecast is nearly unchanged from the previous one through 72 h, but a bit west of the previous forecast beyond 72 h. The NHC forecast is in best agreement with the TVCA consensus aid. Favorable environmental conditions are forecast to continue for the next 60 to 72 hours as Kirk travels over warm sea-surface temperatures and within a relatively moist environment with weak deep-layer vertical wind shear. These favorable conditions should allow for continued steady strengthening, and Kirk is forecast to become a major hurricane on Thursday. By hour 96, Kirk is likely to experience stronger southwesterly wind shear, which should begin a weakening trend. The latest intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies in the middle to upper portion of the guidance envelope. Kirk is a large tropical cyclone and is expected to grow into a very large and powerful major hurricane over the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.5N 42.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.4N 43.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.5N 44.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 20.7N 46.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 21.9N 47.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 23.4N 49.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 25.3N 50.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 30.8N 50.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 37.4N 44.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen |
