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| #1201450 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 02.Oct.2024) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 800 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024 Tropical Depression Thirteen has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with improving circulation definition and convection continuing to curve cyclonically in a banded fashion on its western side. However, Dvorak intensity estimates have not changed much this afternoon, still at T2.5/35-kt from TAFB and T1.5/25-kt from SAB, so the initial intensity will remain 30 kt. The depression appears to be moving just south of due west following along from previous fixes with a current estimated motion at 260/7 kt. This motion has resulted in a slight southward track shift from the previous forecast but remains close to the consensus aid TVCN. This motion should continue over the next day or so guided by a steering ridge to the north and enhanced convection along the southern semicircle potentially pulling it southward as the depression organizes. Track guidance then shows TD13 turning west-northwestward after 48 hours and ultimately northwestward towards the end of the forecast period as the ridge steering becomes more eroded on its western side. The track guidance was very similar to the previous cycle, albeit a touch further south in 5 days, and the latest NHC track has been nudged a bit further south towards the end of the forecast. The forecast for this cycle shows a somewhat faster intensification rate than the prior advisory, with the system now becoming a hurricane in 48 hours, and peaking at 80 kt in 72 hours, due to decreasing shear and plenty of warm ocean waters and moisture early on in the forecast. The intensity guidance then proceeds to show the intensity plateauing after 72 hours as the system could encounter the edge of Hurricane Kirk`s large area of ocean upwelling. Both HAFS-A/B show this potentially limiting the intensity in the longer term, but the NHC intensity forecast could be conservative if TD13 ends up tracking further south than forecasted. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 10.5N 29.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 10.2N 30.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 10.6N 33.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 13.8N 38.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 16.5N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Torres-Vazquez/Papin |
