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| #1201488 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 02.Oct.2024) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the system has become better organized with convective bands wrapping about two-thirds of the way around the center. A partial ASCAT pass from around 2230 UTC showed winds very close to tropical storm force northeast of the center. Since the system has continued to become organized since the ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Leslie. This intensity estimate is also in agreement with a 2.5 Dvorak classification from TAFB. Leslie is moving slowly to the west at about 5 kt. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 2 to 3 days as Leslie remains steered by a weak mid-level ridge to its north. Beyond that time, a slightly faster motion to the northwest is predicted as the storm moves on the western periphery of the ridge and approaches a broad trough over the central Atlantic. The models are in fair agreement overall, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Leslie is currently in a moderate wind shear environment due to the outflow from major Hurricane Kirk to its northwest. However, the shear is expected to lessen while Leslie remains over warm waters and in a moist environment. These condition should support steady strengthening during the next few days, and the official intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one. Beyond a few days, Leslie is predicted to move over Kirk`s prior track and associated cool wake, and into a slightly drier air mass. These conditions could cause the intensity to level off. The new forecast is in best agreement with the latest HCCA guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 10.4N 30.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 10.2N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 10.2N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 10.4N 33.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 12.2N 37.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 14.3N 39.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 17.0N 42.9W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi |
