Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 20 (Milton) , Major: 20 (Milton) Florida - Any: 20 (Milton) Major: 20 (Milton)
 
Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#1201488 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 02.Oct.2024)
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the
system has become better organized with convective bands wrapping
about two-thirds of the way around the center. A partial ASCAT pass
from around 2230 UTC showed winds very close to tropical storm
force northeast of the center. Since the system has continued to
become organized since the ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is
increased to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Leslie.
This intensity estimate is also in agreement with a 2.5 Dvorak
classification from TAFB.

Leslie is moving slowly to the west at about 5 kt. A continued slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 2
to 3 days as Leslie remains steered by a weak mid-level ridge to its
north. Beyond that time, a slightly faster motion to the northwest
is predicted as the storm moves on the western periphery of the
ridge and approaches a broad trough over the central Atlantic. The
models are in fair agreement overall, and the NHC track forecast
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Leslie is currently in a moderate wind shear environment due to the
outflow from major Hurricane Kirk to its northwest. However, the
shear is expected to lessen while Leslie remains over warm waters
and in a moist environment. These condition should support steady
strengthening during the next few days, and the official intensity
forecast is a little higher than the previous one. Beyond a few
days, Leslie is predicted to move over Kirk`s prior track and
associated cool wake, and into a slightly drier air mass. These
conditions could cause the intensity to level off. The new
forecast is in best agreement with the latest HCCA guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 10.4N 30.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 10.2N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 10.2N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 10.4N 33.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 12.2N 37.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 14.3N 39.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 17.0N 42.9W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi