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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 20 (Milton) , Major: 20 (Milton) Florida - Any: 20 (Milton) Major: 20 (Milton)
 
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#1201523 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 03.Oct.2024)
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

The satellite structure of Leslie has changed little since the
previous advisory, with small curved bands of convection primarily
on the eastern side of the storm. Upper-level outflow from distant
Hurricane Kirk continues to impinge on the western portion of the
circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, in best
agreement with a T2.5/35-kt TAFB subjective Dvorak classification.

Leslie is moving slowly westward (265/5 kt) to the south of a
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn to the
west-northwest and northwest, along with a slight increase in
forward speed, is forecast on Friday and over the weekend while the
storm moves around the western extent of the ridge. The models are
in reasonably good agreement on this scenario through the 5-day
forecast period. The updated NHC prediction is virtually unchanged
from the previous one, and lies near or in between the multi-model
consensus aids HCCA and TVCA.

As the distance between Kirk and slow-moving Leslie grows, the wind
shear over Leslie should diminish. This will provide a more
conducive environment for the storm to steadily strengthen within a
moist environment over warm waters. There is some spread in the
intensity guidance regarding how much strengthening will occur
during the next 2-3 days, with the HAFS-A/B models much higher than
the global models and statistical-dynamical aids. Given the storm`s
current structure and slow forward speed, the NHC forecast remains
near the middle of the guidance envelope, closest to the IVCN simple
consensus aid. This forecast brings Leslie to hurricane strength by
early Saturday. As previously noted, the intensity of Leslie could
plateau thereafter if it follows a similar track to Kirk and
encounters the cool wake left behind by the hurricane.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 10.3N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 12.7N 37.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 15.3N 40.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 18.0N 44.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart