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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 20 (Milton) , Major: 20 (Milton) Florida - Any: 20 (Milton) Major: 20 (Milton)
 
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#1201563 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 03.Oct.2024)
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

Leslie is becoming better organized this morning. An earlier
microwave pass depicted a more well-defined center with better
defined curved banding features. Recent satellite-derived wind data
depicts max winds around 38-40 kt. Subjective and objective Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates range from 35-40 kt. Given the
improved organizational structure and satellite trends will lean
towards the higher end of these estimates with an initial intensity
of 40 kt.

The tropical storm is moving slowly westward at an estimated motion
of 260/4 kt to the south of a subtropical ridge over the eastern
Atlantic. As we move into Friday and this weekend the system will
gradually turn west-northwestward then northwestward increasing its
forward speed rounding the subtropical ridge. Model guidance is
tightly clustered and in fairly good agreement. The NHC track
forecast is very near the previous, and lies near the simple and
corrected consensus aids.

The system is still feeling some of the effects of the outflow of
Kirk, however as Kirk begins to move further away shear is forecast
to weaken. The oceanic and atmospheric environmental conditions are
conducive for steady strengthening with warm sea surface temperature
and plenty of moisture. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the
upper-end of the guidance envelope given the improved structure and
favorable environment, and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus.
Towards the end of the forecast period the intensity forecast
plateaus given the system is forecast to track behind the cold wake
of Hurricane Kirk.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 10.1N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 10.1N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 10.4N 32.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 12.3N 37.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 13.3N 38.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 15.9N 41.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 18.6N 44.6W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams