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| #1201605 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 03.Oct.2024) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Leslie is becoming better organized this afternoon, but continues to battle wind shear due to the outflow from Hurricane Kirk. The center is becoming more well-defined on visible satellite imagery and convection is increasing along the southern semi-circle. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB show a Data-T number of 3.0, corresponding with the initial intensity of 45 kt. The tropical storm is drifting westward at 270/5 kt along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge in the eastern Atlantic. Leslie is forecast to move slowly westward over the next day or so before gradually turning west-northwestward, then accelerating to the northwest this weekend. Model guidance has shifted slightly westward, and the official NHC track forecast has followed suit and lies near the simple consensus aids. Leslie has been slowly strengthening today. Steady strengthening is expected over the next 36-48 hr as the shear from Hurricane Kirk lessen, and Leslie moves through a more favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment. The spread in model intensity guidance has increased this afternoon, and the hurricane models have suggested the potential for rapid strengthening. The official NHC intensity forecast lies near the simple consensus aids, although it still lies below some of the regional hurricane models and HCCA. The intensity forecast will plateau by the end of the forecast period as Leslie moves into the cold wake of Kirk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 10.1N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 10.9N 35.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 11.7N 36.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 12.6N 37.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 13.7N 39.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 16.3N 42.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 19.3N 45.6W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams |
