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| #1201607 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 03.Oct.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Kirk continues to improve on satellite imagery, with a well-defined circular eye. Infrared imagery depicts an inner core with cold tops wrapping entirely around the eye, with lightning depicted on GLM data in the northern eyewall. A recent GMI microwave pass also depicts A tight inner core, and a vertically aligned structure of the system. Subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remained T5.5/102 kt. for this cycle. However, the UW-CIMMS objective estimates and SATCON are a little higher and range from 110-124 kt Given the improved satellite depiction in recent hours and a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 115 kt. Kirk is now a category 4 major hurricane on Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane is moving northwestward at 315/10 kt. This motion should continue over the next day or so as Kirk moves around the edge of a subtropical ridge located over the eastern Atlantic. Kirk will begin to curve and turn northeastward this weekend between an approaching trough the eastern/central Atlantic and the subtropical ridge. Models are tightly clustered and the latest NHC forecast track is near the previous. The system is embedded in a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next 24 h or so. Beyond 36 h, wind shear is forecast to increase over the system and gradual weakening is likely to occur. However, additional baroclinic energy is likely to allow Kirk to maintain hurricane-force winds along with a growing tropical-storm-force wind field through the end of the forecast period. Global model fields depict the system becoming extra-tropical by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is near the previous, with a higher peak intensity given the current initial intensity. Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across the central and western Atlantic. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 21.1N 46.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 22.1N 47.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 23.7N 49.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 28.4N 50.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 31.7N 49.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 35.2N 46.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 42.1N 36.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 46.4N 23.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kelly |
