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| #1201643 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 03.Oct.2024) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 There has been little change in Leslie`s appearance this evening. Based on the CIMSS-UW satellite wind analyses, the storm is still being sheared by the outflow from Hurricane Kirk. Convection continues to pulse near the center with a curved band wrapping around the southern portion of the circulation. Subjective satellite intensity estimates have held steady this cycle and the initial intensity remains at 45 kt. Leslie is moving slowly just south of due west at 265/5 kt. A subtropical ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to slowly move Leslie westward overnight and then gradually turn the storm west-northwestward on Friday. By the end of the weekend, Leslie is expected to accelerate and turn northwestward. The latest NHC track forecast have been nudged slightly westward from the previous prediction, largely due to a more westward initial position. Despite the vertical wind shear caused by Hurricane Kirk, Leslie is expected to steadily strengthen in next couple of days due to warm ocean waters and sufficient mid-level moisture. As the shear abates in 48-72 h, Leslie could strengthen more quickly, however the spread in model guidance is rather large as these forecast hours. Factors such as how long Leslie is over Kirk`s cold wake could slow or stall intensification. For now, the NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the earlier advisory and lies near the top of the guidance envelope, closest to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 10.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 10.1N 32.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 10.5N 34.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 11.0N 35.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 11.8N 36.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 12.8N 38.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 14.0N 39.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 16.8N 43.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 19.9N 46.6W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci |
