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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 20 (Milton) , Major: 20 (Milton) Florida - Any: 20 (Milton) Major: 20 (Milton)
 
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#1201643 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 03.Oct.2024)
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

There has been little change in Leslie`s appearance this evening.
Based on the CIMSS-UW satellite wind analyses, the storm is still
being sheared by the outflow from Hurricane Kirk. Convection
continues to pulse near the center with a curved band wrapping
around the southern portion of the circulation. Subjective
satellite intensity estimates have held steady this cycle and the
initial intensity remains at 45 kt.

Leslie is moving slowly just south of due west at 265/5 kt. A
subtropical ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to
slowly move Leslie westward overnight and then gradually turn the
storm west-northwestward on Friday. By the end of the weekend,
Leslie is expected to accelerate and turn northwestward. The latest
NHC track forecast have been nudged slightly westward from the
previous prediction, largely due to a more westward initial
position.

Despite the vertical wind shear caused by Hurricane Kirk, Leslie is
expected to steadily strengthen in next couple of days due to warm
ocean waters and sufficient mid-level moisture. As the shear abates
in 48-72 h, Leslie could strengthen more quickly, however the spread
in model guidance is rather large as these forecast hours. Factors
such as how long Leslie is over Kirk`s cold wake could slow or stall
intensification. For now, the NHC intensity forecast is unchanged
from the earlier advisory and lies near the top of the guidance
envelope, closest to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 10.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 10.1N 32.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 10.5N 34.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 11.0N 35.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 11.8N 36.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 12.8N 38.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 14.0N 39.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 16.8N 43.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 19.9N 46.6W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci