|
Show Selection: |
| #1201644 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 03.Oct.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Kirk continues to prosper. The earlier eyewall replacement cycle appears to have completed, and Kirk is back on a strengthening trend. Satellite images indicate that Kirk has a circular and clear 15 n mi eye surrounded by a solid ring of intense deep convection. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 115 to 135 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is increased to 125 kt. The hurricane is moving northwestward at 9 kt, and this general motion should continue through Friday as Kirk continues to move along the southwestern periphery of a high pressure ridge over the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic. A turn to the north is expected on Saturday when Kirk reaches the western periphery of the ridge and as a shortwave trough approaches the system. This trough and a reinforcing one should cause the hurricane to accelerate northeastward on Sunday and early next week. The models are in fairly good agreement on this overall scenario, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged westward to be in better agreement with the latest model runs. Kirk could strengthen a little more during the next 12 hours or so, but increasing vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should cause a steady weakening trend to begin shortly after that. Kirk will likely complete extratropical transition when it moves over cool waters sometime between day 4 and day 5, but it is expected to remain a powerful system throughout the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Even though Kirk is expected to stay over the open Atlantic, its strong intensity and increasing size will cause large ocean swells to propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands beginning Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 21.5N 47.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 22.5N 48.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 26.8N 50.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 30.0N 49.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 33.6N 48.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 37.3N 44.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 43.5N 33.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 47.0N 16.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
