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| #1201790 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 04.Oct.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 Microwave images indicate that Kirk is going through another eyewall replacement cycle. The inner eyewall is still closed while a larger second eyewall wraps about 75 percent of the way around the eye and inner eyewall. The satellite intensity estimates have held mostly steady, and therefore, the initial intensity remains 115 kt. Hurricanes that go through these eyewall replacement cycles often get larger, and Kirk appears to be doing the same. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been expanded a little on the system`s east side based on a partial ASCAT-B pass. Kirk is moving northwestward at 11 kt. A turn to the north is expected on Saturday when Kirk reaches the western periphery of the ridge, followed by a much faster northeastward and east-northeastward motion Sunday and early next week when Kirk moves in the strong mid-latitude flow. This track should take the core of the system to the north of the Azores on Monday and then across portions of western Europe by the middle of next week, Models are in good agreement, and no significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. Fluctuations in intensity are likely in the short term, however, a pronounced increase in shear, intrusions of drier air, and progressively cooler waters should cause steady weakening beginning on Saturday. Kirk is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by day 3 when it is forecast to be over water temperatures in low 20`s C and embedded in the strong mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend in the model guidance, and is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles through Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 25.0N 49.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 26.9N 50.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 30.2N 49.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 33.9N 48.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 37.7N 44.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 40.9N 39.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 43.2N 32.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0000Z 45.4N 14.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0000Z 50.6N 1.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
