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| #1201793 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 04.Oct.2024) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 04 2024 Leslie continues to become better organized this evening. An SSMIS microwave pass from 1946 UTC showed that Leslie had a small inner core with a well-defined mid-level center. Subjective satellite intensity guidance has held steady while objective guidance has increased significantly, creating a wide range of possible intensities (56-84 kt). For this advisory, the maximum sustained winds have been increased to 65 kt, which is closest to the SAB T4.0 classification. Leslie is the eighth hurricane in the Atlantic this season. A subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean is steering the hurricane slowly to the west-northwest at 290/6 kt. There has been no changes to the track reasoning. The ridge should be the dominant steering feature through the entire forecast period, turning Leslie northwestward by Saturday and continue this motion through the middle of next week. Only minor updates were made to the latest NHC track forecast. Based on the UW-CIMSS satellite wind analysis, Leslie is on the edge of a shear gradient, with the core in an area of moderate-to-weak vertical wind shear. Global models suggest environmental conditions will be conducive for about a day and half before the shear begins to increase and Leslie moves into a drier airmass. These conditions should induce gradual weakening. There is still a large spread in the intensity guidance envelope, which seems related to the strength of the vertical wind shear Leslie could encounter. Overall, the guidance has once shifted downward this cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast has been lowered at 60 h and beyond. The forecast still lies at the high end of the intensity aids and additional adjustments may be needed in later advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 10.4N 34.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 10.8N 35.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 11.6N 36.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 12.7N 37.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 14.1N 38.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 15.4N 40.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 16.9N 42.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 19.5N 45.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 21.8N 48.7W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci |
