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| #1201827 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 05.Oct.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 The eye of Kirk has become ragged and cloud filled during the past several hours. The satellite presentation suggests that southwesterly shear and intrusions of dry air are negatively affecting the hurricane, as a pronounced dry slot is noted on the western side of Kirk. As a result of these structural changes, the satellite intensity estimates have decreased overnight. Based on a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB with recent UW-CIMSS objective estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt. Kirk continues to turn more northward (340/11 kt) within the flow between a shortwave trough over the west-central Atlantic and a subtropical ridge to the east of the hurricane. The track models agree that Kirk should keep recurving to the northeast and east-northeast through early next week while accelerating within strong mid-latitude flow. The NHC forecast track shows the center of Kirk passing to the north of the Azores on Monday as an extratropical cyclone, and then moving across the northeastern Atlantic and over western Europe by the middle of next week. No significant changes were made to the updated NHC prediction. The environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly hostile over the coming days, with a marked increase in shear and a drier environment surrounding the hurricane while it moves over progressively cooler waters. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast through early next week. Kirk should lose tropical characteristics and transition to a strong extratropical cyclone between 60-72 h, which is supported by the global model fields and simulated satellite imagery. The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of weakening, close to or slightly above the latest HCCA aid. However, note that the wind field of the cyclone is forecast to remain quite large through the 5-day forecast period. Large and powerful Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from the hurricane. These large swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles beginning later today, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 26.2N 50.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 28.4N 50.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 31.9N 49.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 35.7N 46.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 39.2N 42.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 43.4N 28.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0600Z 45.5N 10.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z 52.0N 4.5E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
