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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 20 (Milton) , Major: 20 (Milton) Florida - Any: 20 (Milton) Major: 20 (Milton)
 
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#1201862 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 05.Oct.2024)
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

Deep convection continues to burst over the center of Leslie this
morning. Some of the latest satellite images depict a little bit of
shear starting to impact the system, with a sharper convective edge
on the western side. Subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates range from 65 to 75 kt. Using a blend of these estimates,
the initial intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory.

Leslie continues to move slowly west-northwestward (295/6 kt),
steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic.
The ridge will continue to steer Leslie the next several days with a
turn more northwestward, with an increase in forward speed by the
middle of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very close
to the previous, and lies near the simple and corrected consensus
aids.

The intensity forecast continues to trend downward with Leslie. The
system has about 12-24 hours left within a favorable environment
where some slight additional strengthening may occur. By Sunday,
increased shear, drier mid-level, and the track taking Leslie over
Kirk`s cold wake, this could cause some weakening after 24 hours.
There is better agreement with the weakening trend, however they
differ on how significantly and how quickly weakening will occur.
Therefore, downward adjustments were made to the NHC intensity
forecast and now has Leslie weakening below hurricane strength
beyond 48 h. If trends continue further downward adjustments may be
required in future advisories.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 11.1N 35.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 11.7N 36.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 12.7N 37.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 13.8N 38.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 15.0N 40.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 16.4N 42.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 17.8N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 20.4N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 22.4N 50.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly