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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 20 (Milton) , Major: 20 (Milton) Florida - Any: 20 (Milton) Major: 20 (Milton)
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#1201913 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 05.Oct.2024)
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 36.0W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 36.0W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 35.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 12.3N 36.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.4N 38.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.7N 39.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.0N 41.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.3N 43.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.7N 45.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N 48.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 22.9N 51.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 55NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 36.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY