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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 20 (Milton) , Major: 20 (Milton) Florida - Any: 20 (Milton) Major: 20 (Milton)
 
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#1201920 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 05.Oct.2024)
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

Leslie continues to produce deep convection this afternoon. Although
the convective pattern depicts some southwesterly shear
starting to impact the system. Subjective and objective Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates range from 55-70 kt. Given the deep
convection over the center still, the initial intensity is held at
70 kt for this advisory, although that could be a little generous.

The hurricane continues to move slowly west-northwestward at 300/7
kt, steered along the southwestern portion of a mid-level
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The ridge will continue
to steer Leslie the next several days with a turn more
northwestward, with an increase in forward speed the next several
days. Model track guidance still remains fairly tightly clustered
and the NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one.

Leslie may be able to fend off the shear over the next 12 hours or
so, however by Sunday, the system will start to move into increasing
wind shear and mid-level dry air. The NHC forecast track also takes
Leslie over Kirk`s cold wake. There continues to be some model
differences on how significantly, and quickly weakening will occur.
The NHC forecast follows the latest consensus aids downward trends,
and is slightly lower than the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 11.6N 36.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 12.3N 36.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 13.4N 38.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 14.7N 39.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 16.0N 41.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 17.3N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 18.7N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 21.0N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 22.9N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly