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| #1201958 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 05.Oct.2024) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 Leslie is holding steady this evening. Geostationary imagery shows a growing Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with periodic burst of embedded deep convection. An ASCAT pass from earlier showed that has a small core with the center near the southern side of the deep convection. Objective and subjective satellite estimates range from 50 to 77 kt. The initial intensity is held at an uncertain 70 kt, favoring the SAB and TAFB estimates. The hurricane is moving at an estimated 310/8 kt. A subtropical ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic has turned Leslie to the northwest, and this motion is expected to continue, with a slight increase in forward speed, for the entire forecast period. Model guidance is in relatively good agreement about this forecast and only small adjustments have been made to the latest NHC track prediction. According to the SHIP diagnostics, Leslie only has a few more hours in the low vertical wind shear environment. On Sunday, increasing wind shear and dry mid-level humidities should induce a gradual weakening trend for the entire forecast period. Some model guidance is showing that Leslie could weaken quicker than forecast, and adjustments to the intensity forecast could be necessary in subsequent advisories. The latest NHC forecast has been nudged downward, slightly above the consensus aid IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 12.4N 36.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 13.2N 37.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 14.4N 39.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 15.5N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 16.8N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 18.2N 44.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 19.5N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 21.7N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 23.4N 51.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci |
