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| #1202007 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 AM 06.Oct.2024) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 The center of Leslie was embedded within a cold, asymmetric central dense overcast for much of the overnight hours. But recently, geostationary satellite images indicate an eye feature is trying to emerge, with a warm spot in infrared imagery surrounded by a ring of deep, cold convection. Based on these satellite trends, the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt, in best agreement with T4.5 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Leslie is moving northwestward (310/9 kt) while being steered by a subtropical ridge centered to the north and northeast of the hurricane. This ridge is expected to build eastward over the eastern Atlantic and remain the primary steering feature for much of the 5-day forecast period. As a result, the NHC forecast shows a continued northwestward motion, remaining near the center of the track guidance envelope. Only small right-of-track adjustments were made to the previous forecast, mainly beyond 48 h. Some near-term intensity fluctuations are possible today, depending on whether Leslie is able to fully clear out an eye this morning. But overall, the environmental conditions are still forecast to become less favorable for further development in the coming days. Drier mid-level air, a more convergent upper-level environment, and increasing southwesterly shear should induce at least a gradual weakening trend in the coming days, and this is reflected in the latest NHC prediction. Since Leslie is a relatively small tropical cyclone, it could be more susceptible to these negative factors and weaken even faster than the NHC forecast later in the period, as suggested by the regional hurricane models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 12.9N 37.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 13.7N 38.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 16.2N 41.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 17.5N 43.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 18.9N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 20.2N 46.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 22.2N 49.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 24.0N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
