|
Show Selection: |
| #1202047 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 06.Oct.2024) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 Leslie has continued to produce a deep ring of convection around the center, with a faint eye becoming more apparent on infrared and visible satellite imagery, and GLM lightning data depicts lightning occuring in the northern eyewall. These satellite trends all depict Leslie is still strengthening within a marginally favorable environment. Dvorak subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have continued to increase this cycle and range from 70 to 85 kt. Based on these satellite data, the initial intensity is raised to 80 kt. Leslie is moving northwestward (310/8 kt) while being steered by a subtropical ridge centered to the northeast of the hurricane. The ridge will remain anchored over the eastern Atlantic and continue to steer the hurricane northwestward throughout the forecast period. As a result, model guidance is fairly tightly clustered with only a few slight leftward adjustments made towards the end of the forecast period, closer to the HCCA corrected consensus. The hurricane has been able to maintain its core even though wind shear is gradually increasing over the system. Leslie has about 12 more hours before it begins to move into an increasingly unfavorable environment. In the near term the forecast allows for some additional strengthening, especially if Leslie`s eye can clear. However, drier mid-level air is nearby as is depicted on water vapor imagery, as well as a less difluent upper-level pattern, and southwesterly shear will persist. The latest NHC forecast follows the latest model trends with gradual weakening beginning on Monday. Since Leslie is a relatively small tropical cyclone, it could be more susceptible to these negative factors and weaken even faster than the NHC forecast later in the period, as suggested by some of the global and hurricane regional models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 13.3N 37.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 14.2N 39.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 15.4N 40.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 16.6N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 17.9N 43.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 19.2N 45.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 20.4N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 22.2N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 24.2N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly |
