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| #1202103 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 06.Oct.2024) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 Leslie`s satellite imagery has become a little more ragged as southwesterly shear has disrupted the overall convective pattern. The deep inner core convection has become a little more broken the last few hours. Subjective and objective estimates range from 75 to 85 kt, with a T4.5 from both TAFB and SAB. Based on these satellite estimates, the initial intensity is held at 80 kt. Leslie is moving northwestward (310/8 kt) while being steered by a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The ridge will continue to build to the northeast of the system, which should steer the hurricane northwestward throughout the forecast period. Models continue to be in good agreement, the NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous which remains near the latest consensus aids. The hurricane has started to enter a more hostile environment. Southwesterly shear has started to increase, with drier mid-levels, and upper-level convergence along the forecast path. The latest NHC forecast follows the latest model trends with gradual weakening beginning on Monday. Since Leslie is a relatively small tropical cyclone, it could be more susceptible to these negative factors and weaken even faster than the NHC forecast later in the period, as suggested by some of the global and hurricane regional models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.0N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 16.2N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 17.6N 43.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 19.0N 44.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 20.3N 46.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 21.2N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 22.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 24.1N 51.7W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly |
