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| #1202150 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 06.Oct.2024) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 Leslie has been more or less status quo this evening, with the hurricane characterized by a small central dense overcast that occasionally has a warm spot appearing on infrared images. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged for 00 UTC, while the objective intensity estimates are a tad lower than earlier. For now, Leslie`s intensity will be held at 80 kt until there is a more distinct degradation in its satellite appearance. Leslie continues to move northwestward, with its motion estimated at 315/10 kt this advisory. The hurricane has been primarily steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast which should continue for the next several days, followed by a turn to the north-northwest or north by the end of the forecast period as it reaches the westward extent of the ridge. There has been a slight rightward shift in the guidance this cycle, and the NHC track forecast is a little north and east of the prior track forecast, roughly in between the latest TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. There are a couple of negative factors likely to influence Leslie`s intensity over the next few days. First, while 200-850 mb vertical wind shear is forecast to be fairly low, undercutting this outflow layer is stronger 20-25 kt mid-level southwesterly shear. This shear appears likely to import some very dry mid-level air, seen on water vapor GOES-16 imagery southwest of Leslie, into the hurricane`s small inner core. At the same time, sea-surface temperatures along Leslie`s path are likely to be at least somewhat cooler thanks in part to upwelling from Hurricane Kirk last week. The intensity guidance, especially the regional-hurricane models, show quite a bit of weakening due to these negative factors, and the NHC intensity forecast also will show weakening through the forecast period. In fact, the latest NHC forecast shows a bit more weakening than the prior advisory, as Leslie`s small core could be more prone to these negative conditions. However, this forecast is still a little above the latest HAFS-A/B forecasts which show more rapid weakening over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 15.0N 39.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 16.0N 40.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 18.8N 44.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 20.2N 45.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 21.2N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 21.9N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 23.4N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 25.0N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin |
