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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 20 (Milton) , Major: 20 (Milton) Florida - Any: 20 (Milton) Major: 20 (Milton)
 
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#1202150 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 06.Oct.2024)
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

Leslie has been more or less status quo this evening, with the
hurricane characterized by a small central dense overcast that
occasionally has a warm spot appearing on infrared images.
Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged for
00 UTC, while the objective intensity estimates are a tad lower
than earlier. For now, Leslie`s intensity will be held at 80 kt
until there is a more distinct degradation in its satellite
appearance.

Leslie continues to move northwestward, with its motion estimated at
315/10 kt this advisory. The hurricane has been primarily steered by
a mid-level ridge to its northeast which should continue for the
next several days, followed by a turn to the north-northwest or
north by the end of the forecast period as it reaches the westward
extent of the ridge. There has been a slight rightward shift in the
guidance this cycle, and the NHC track forecast is a little north
and east of the prior track forecast, roughly in between the latest
TVCA and HCCA consensus aids.

There are a couple of negative factors likely to influence Leslie`s
intensity over the next few days. First, while 200-850 mb vertical
wind shear is forecast to be fairly low, undercutting this outflow
layer is stronger 20-25 kt mid-level southwesterly shear. This shear
appears likely to import some very dry mid-level air, seen on water
vapor GOES-16 imagery southwest of Leslie, into the hurricane`s
small inner core. At the same time, sea-surface temperatures along
Leslie`s path are likely to be at least somewhat cooler thanks in
part to upwelling from Hurricane Kirk last week. The intensity
guidance, especially the regional-hurricane models, show quite a bit
of weakening due to these negative factors, and the NHC intensity
forecast also will show weakening through the forecast period. In
fact, the latest NHC forecast shows a bit more weakening than the
prior advisory, as Leslie`s small core could be more prone to these
negative conditions. However, this forecast is still a little above
the latest HAFS-A/B forecasts which show more rapid weakening over
the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 15.0N 39.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 16.0N 40.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 18.8N 44.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 20.2N 45.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 21.2N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 21.9N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 23.4N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 25.0N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin