|
Show Selection: |
| #1202192 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 07.Oct.2024) TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 900 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 Kirk has almost completed extratropical transition. The inner core of the system has basically collapsed and deep convection is limited to the northern half of the circulation. The system is moving into a baroclinic zone, and it is expected to be an extratropical cyclone later today. The initial intensity is nudged downward to 65 kt based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Strong shear, dry air, cool waters, and a decrease in upper-level dynamics should cause Kirk to gradually lose strength. However, the system`s wind field will remain large and Kirk is still expected to be a strong extratropical low during the next couple of days. The intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest GFS solution. Kirk is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial motion is 050/26 kt. A turn to the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves within the fast mid-latitude westerly flow. This should take the extratropical low to the north of the Azores on Tuesday and across western Europe on Wednesday. Although Kirk is over the open ocean, it is still producing large swells that could lead to life-threatening rip currents across portions of the Caribbean, Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S., and Atlantic Canada. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 40.2N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 42.2N 36.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 08/0600Z 43.4N 29.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/1800Z 43.5N 21.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0600Z 43.9N 11.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/1800Z 46.0N 2.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
