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| #1202300 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 07.Oct.2024) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Mon Oct 07 2024 Leslie`s convective organization continues to become a little less organized this afternoon, although deep convection has persisted over the center with cloud tops near -80C. A recent AMSR2 microwave pass shows that the inner core has deteriorated from imagery earlier today. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range from 60 to 75 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 70 kt. The system is moving northwestward, or 315/12 kt. The hurricane is rounding the edge of a subtropical ridge over the central/east Atlantic. The system should continue to move northwestward with a gradual turn more north-northwestward then northward by the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is slightly faster than the previous forecast and was adjusted slightly to the right towards the latest consensus aids. Leslie will remain in a marginal environment for the next day or two, with warm sea surface temperatures and low to moderate wind shear. However, the system is entering a much drier air mass. Beyond 48 h, shear will also increase as the mid-levels will continue to be dry. Intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement with gradual then steady weakening throughout the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast follows these weakening trends and lies near the model consensus. Model simulated satellite imagery depicts that by day 4, the shear and drier air will cause Leslie to lose convection and the system is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 17.4N 42.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 18.6N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 20.2N 45.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 21.5N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 22.6N 47.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 23.3N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 24.2N 49.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 26.3N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z 30.0N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly |
