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| #1202413 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 08.Oct.2024) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 This morning`s satellite presentation consists of a shrinking cold cloud top (-73C) irregular-shaped central dense overcast and curved banding features in the south and north portion of the cyclone. A recent METOP-B scatterometer pass revealed a somewhat distorted asymmetric circulation located near the southeastern edge of the convective mass. A blend of the AiDT/DPRINT/DMINT objective estimates and a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis yield an initial intensity of 60 kt for this advisory. A mid-tropospheric tongue of dry, stable air is penetrating Leslie`s deteriorating convective inner core from the southwest while mid-level southwesterly flow undercuts the diffluence aloft. The statistical SHIPS intensity guidance shows a significant increase in the shear magnitude by mid-period. This and the ongoing inhibiting thermodynamic surrounding environment should cause Leslie to lose its organized convection in 72 hrs, if not sooner, and become a post-tropical cyclone. Further weakening is expected throughout the period, and the official forecast indicates that the cyclone will degenerate into a remnant low this weekend. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/11 kt. The forecast track philosophy has not changed for this advisory, and Leslie should continue to move in the mid-level peripheral flow of a subtropical ridge to its northeast through the end of the week. A turn toward the north is expected around the 72 hr period as it rounds the southwestern portion of the above mentioned ridge. Only small adjustments were made to the NHC forecast just to agree a little more with the skilled consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 18.8N 44.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 19.8N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 21.1N 47.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 22.1N 48.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 22.9N 49.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 23.8N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 25.0N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 12/0600Z 28.7N 46.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 13/0600Z 32.4N 39.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts |
