|
Show Selection: |
| #1202461 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 08.Oct.2024) TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Sequences of microwave images and recent Hurricane Hunter observations suggest that Milton completed an eyewall replacement overnight, and the new eyewall has contracted down from 22 n mi to 12 nm in diameter. However, it does not appear that the hurricane weakened much after the eyewall replacement, and it could have rebounded with the outer eyewall contraction. A dropsonde released by the NOAA P-3 in the northeastern eyewall recently measured an average wind of 156 kt in the lowest 150 m of the sounding, which equates to an intensity of 130 kt. The latest pressure reported by the planes is 929 mb. The recent aircraft fixes show that Milton has turned a bit leftward and is moving toward the east-northeast (065/8 kt). Milton is forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. The track guidance is honed in on a landfall along the west-central coast of Florida sometime Wednesday night. However, it is critical to remember that even at 36-48 hours away, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 60-70 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if the hurricane wobbles as it approaches the coast. After landfall, Milton is forecast to cross Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on Thursday. Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to set in about 24 hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will not be enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models, since these models should have a better handle on a potential positive trough interaction. Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be completed today. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today. 2. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on Wednesday. 3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight. 4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 22.7N 88.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 23.6N 87.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 25.2N 85.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 26.8N 83.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 60H 11/0000Z 29.1N 78.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 11/1200Z 29.7N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1200Z 30.4N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1200Z 31.8N 60.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg |
