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| #1202509 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 08.Oct.2024) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 Leslie appears to have made a bit of a comeback today. A couple of fortuitous microwave images from the past few hours show a closed eyewall. The latest subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB range from 55-77 kt, and recent objective estimates range from 65-74 kt. The microwave passes, the objective intensity estimates, and the TAFB current intensity number all suggest that Leslie is a hurricane. Therefore, the initial intensity is bumped back up to 65 kt. The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 305/12. A gradual turn to the north is expected in a day or two as Leslie rounds the southwestern and western side of a subtropical ridge. After that, as Leslie gains latitude late this week, the cyclone will increasingly come under the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies, causing a turn toward the northeast. Very minor changes have been made to the official track forecast, which lies near the various consensus guidance. Leslie is forecast to remain in an environment of very weak vertical wind shear for another 24-36 h. Given the closed eyewall observed on recent microwave images, Leslie may be able to prevent dry environmental air from entraining into its inner-core during that time. Leslie will be traveling over Kirk`s cold wake over the next day or so, which will limit the instability. The hurricane should remain fairly steady during this time, and the NHC forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance during the first 24 h. By 36 h, models show Leslie running into a wall of strong northerly wind shear, which is forecast to cause Leslie to decouple and degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone by this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 20.0N 46.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 21.0N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 22.1N 48.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 24.0N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 25.5N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 27.4N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 12/1800Z 31.5N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 13/1800Z 34.6N 34.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen |
