|
Show Selection: |
| #1202512 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 08.Oct.2024) TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters found that Milton's central pressure had fallen to 923 mb in the last pass they made through the eye a few hours ago. The satellite presentation has improved since that time, with a thick ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a 10-mile-wide eye. This pattern yielded a T7.0/140 kt from TAFB, with several of the objective satellite estimates between 140 and 145 kt. Milton has again become a category 5 hurricane, with maximum winds estimated to be 145 kt. Another Air Force mission is entering Milton as we speak. Milton wobbled a bit to the southeast today, but the longer-term 12-hour motion is east-northeastward (075/8 kt). Milton is forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. Because of the wobble, the track guidance has been initialized a bit to the south of where many of the raw model fields think the hurricane was centered at 1800 UTC, and this has caused the entire guidance envelope to shift a bit south on this cycle. It is still critical to remember that even at 36 hours (around the time of potential landfall), NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 60 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if additional wobbles occur in the short term. After landfall, Milton is forecast to cross Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on Thursday. Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to increase in about 24 hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will likely not be enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models, since these models should have a better handle on a potential positive trough interaction. Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. In addition, the stronger-than-normal winds could occur on the northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be completed today. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Key Messages: 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on Wednesday. 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. 4. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge with destructive waves will continue across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 22.7N 87.5W 145 KT 165 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 23.8N 86.4W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 25.6N 84.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 27.2N 82.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 28.1N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 60H 11/0600Z 28.6N 77.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 11/1800Z 29.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1800Z 30.6N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1800Z 31.8N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg |
