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| #1202562 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 08.Oct.2024) TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Milton again this evening, providing a number of center fixes, flight-level wind data, dropsonde measurements, and other valuable observations. Data from the aircraft confirmed that the hurricane had regained category 5 intensity, with maximum winds near 145 kt and the central pressure as low as 902 mb. More recent aircraft observations showed that the central pressure had risen somewhat, so the advisory intensity is adjusted slightly down, to 140 kt. This is also consistent with the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB. Center fixes from the aircraft and satellite images indicate that Milton's heading is gradually turning toward the left and the initial motion estimate is now about 055/10 kt. The system is being steered by the flow between a trough digging over the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. Milton should move northeastward on Wednesday with a slight increase in forward speed, with the center of the hurricane reaching the Florida Gulf coast in 24 hours or so. Thereafter, the system should turn east-northeastward to eastward and move over the southwestern Atlantic off the southeast U.S. coast. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and is generally a little north of the model trackers, but follows the actual model predicted cyclone center locations. This is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF model solutions. Again, it is critical to remember that even at 24 hours out, it is still not possible to pinpoint an an exact landfall location. Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of Florida. Although an expected increase in vertical wind shear should cause some weakening, Milton is expected to still be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches shore. Also, the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton reaches the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper side of the intensity model guidance. After Milton moves over the Atlantic, the global models show the system becoming embedded within a frontal zone, so the official forecast shows the system becoming extratropical by 72 hours. Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size by the time the center moves over Florida. In addition, a large region of tropical storm and hurricane force winds could occur on the northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be completed tonight. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Key Messages: 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate as soon as possible if ordered by local officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on Wednesday. 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 23.4N 86.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 24.7N 85.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 26.5N 83.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/0000Z 28.5N 78.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 11/1200Z 29.0N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 29.4N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0000Z 30.4N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0000Z 31.5N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
