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| #1202615 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 09.Oct.2024) TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Milton has been maintaining its strength as a catastrophic category 5 hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite and Doppler radar images indicate that the major hurricane has a compact, symmetric, and very powerful inner core. Based on aircraft data, the minimum pressure has dropped to 907 mb and the maximum sustained winds remain near 140 kt. The wind field of Milton is gradually expanding, and the wind radii have been adjusted based on a combination of the Hurricane Hunter data and ASCAT passes. There is an area of heavy rain beginning to spread across portions of southwestern and west-central Florida out ahead of Milton, and weather conditions will steadily deteriorate across portions of the Florida Gulf Coast throughout the day. Milton is moving northeastward at 12 kt in the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over the northern Gulf and a ridge located over the Greater Antilles. This motion should generally continue until Milton makes landfall in Florida, which is likely to occur late tonight or early Thursday morning. After the hurricane reaches the coast, a turn to the east-northeast is expected as another trough approaches the system from the west. Milton should exit Florida and move over the Atlantic waters Thursday afternoon and accelerate eastward after that. The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest models. It should be noted that this forecast is based on the model fields, not the interpolated models which appear to be too far south. Users are urged not to focus on the exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40 miles. The global models agree that vertical wind shear is expected begin to increase over Milton later today, and that should cause some weakening. However, there is high confidence that Milton will remain a very dangerous hurricane when it reaches Florida, and maintain hurricane status as it moves across the state. The cyclone is expected to become extratropical over the Atlantic on Friday and gradually weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance. Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size while it moves across Florida. Additionally, a large region of tropical storm and hurricane-force winds could occur on the northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be rushed to completion. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Key Messages: 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate as soon as possible if ordered by local officials. 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 24.5N 85.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 25.9N 84.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 27.4N 82.6W 115 KT 130 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 10/1800Z 28.2N 80.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 11/0600Z 28.8N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 29.1N 73.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0600Z 29.7N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0600Z 31.3N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0600Z 32.1N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Roberts |
