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| #1202673 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 09.Oct.2024) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 Visible, infrared and some recent microwave images suggest that the center of the small tropical cyclone continues to be located underneath the middle of the central dense overcast. In fact, some of the recent frames have hinted at a ragged eye feature. The TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak estimates are a consensus T-4.5/77 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 75 kt, in best agreement with the Dvorak estimates. Leslie`s initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/9 kt. A gradual turn to the north is expected in about 36 h as Leslie rounds the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge to the east. Afterward, Leslie should accelerate toward the northeast in response to a strong trough approaching the cyclone from the northwest. The NHC forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and lies near the TVCN and HCCA consensus models. Leslie is forecast to remain in a favorable environment for another 12-18 h. The intensity forecast has been increased to an 85-kt peak at hour 12 and 24, and it is possible that it could strengthen a bit more than that, as suggested by the HAFS-B model. By hour 24, Leslie is expected to run into a wall of strong northerly shear caused by a strengthening upper-level anticyclone in between Milton and Leslie. The shear is expected to cause Leslie to rapidly weaken during the 24 to 48 h period. While it is possible that Leslie could lose most of its convection in 2 to 3 days, the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show periodic bursts of convection continuing into Day 4. However, Leslie is likely to merge with a front and become extratropical in 3 to 4 days, and a transition to an extratropical cyclone is forecast at the end of that period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 21.7N 48.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 22.5N 49.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 24.6N 50.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 26.4N 49.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 28.7N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 31.1N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/1200Z 34.5N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1200Z 35.9N 26.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Hagen |
