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| #1202945 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 10.Oct.2024) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 200 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 ...VERY HEAVY RAINS AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES REMAIN IN EFFECT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 81.3W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF ORLANDO FLORIDA ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Anclote River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Okeechobee * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located inland near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 81.3 West. Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this afternoon, followed by a turn toward the east tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will continue to move across the central part of the Florida during the next few hours, and emerge off the east coast of Florida around sunrise. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity while crossing Florida this morning. After moving into the Atlantic, Milton is expected to gradually lose tropical characteristics and slowly weaken. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). A sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h) and a gust of 76 mph (122 km/h) was recently reported at a NASA weather station at Cape Canaveral. A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 75 mph (121 km/h) was recently reported at Daytona Beach International Airport. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph (101 km/h was recently reported at Melbourne International Airport. A sustained wind of 33 mph (53 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported at Orlando International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anna Maria Island, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...4-7 ft Charlotte Harbor...4-7 ft Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...3-5 ft Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 8 to 14 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula today. This rainfall will continue to bring the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane warning area in Florida. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area through midday today. Tropical storm conditions in the tropical storm warning area in Florida and will spread to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas later today. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this morning over parts of central and eastern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast today and along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Reinhart/Mahoney/Sardi |
