|
Show Selection: |
| #1202971 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 10.Oct.2024) TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Milton moved quickly across central Florida overnight, producing significant flooding and damaging winds near its path. The center of the hurricane is now exiting the state near Cape Canaveral, and the worst conditions have shifted to east-central and northeastern Florida. The initial intensity is set to 75 kt based on Doppler radar velocity data and surface observations, with the strongest winds likely occurring just offshore of east-central Florida. Milton is expected to remain a hurricane a little longer, but the models are in good agreement that it will develop frontal characteristics by tonight, and therefore, the official forecast shows the system becoming extratropical in 24 hours. The extratropical low is expected to gradually weaken and dissipate in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the GFS model, which typically performs better than the standard hurricane models for transitioning systems. The hurricane is moving quickly northeastward between a trough just to its west and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. A turn to the east is expected to occur soon as the flow becomes more zonal, taking the system to the north of the Bahamas later today and south of Bermuda on Saturday. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest models. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the coast from east-central Florida northward to southern Georgia, where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. 2. Damaging hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will continue for a few more hours in east-central and northeastern Florida. Residents are urged to remain in an interior room and away from windows. 3. Heavy rainfall across the central to northern Florida Peninsula through this morning continues to bring the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 28.5N 80.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 29.3N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 29.6N 74.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 11/1800Z 29.6N 70.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/0600Z 29.7N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1800Z 29.9N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0600Z 30.6N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
