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| #1202973 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 10.Oct.2024) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Thu Oct 10 2024 The satellite presentation of Leslie has degraded since the previous advisory. Based on geostationary satellite imagery, the eye feature has filled, deep convection have shifted to the southern side of the circulation, and the outflow appears to be impinged in the northwest quadrant. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have plateaued, with final-T numbers coming down. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 90 kt, in agreement with the latest TAFB and SAB estimates. The window for intensification seems to have closed. Vertical wind shear appears to be strengthening significantly over Leslie. Global models insist the strong upper-level winds will strip away deep convection and force in the surrounding dry mid-level humidities into the circulation quickly. Given the relatively small size of the hurricane, rapid weakening is expected over the next few days. Leslie is now forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday and open into a trough by early next week. Leslie is moving northwestward at about 5 kt. This motion should continue through today as Leslie moves around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. On Friday, the hurricane should speed up and turn to the north and north-northeast, followed by a turn northeastward and east-northeastward as it accelerates further over the weekend. There have been only minor changes to the latest NHC track forecast, which lies essentially on top of the previous prediction and between the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 22.9N 49.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 23.6N 50.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 24.9N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 27.0N 49.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 29.5N 47.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 32.0N 43.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 34.2N 38.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/0600Z 36.5N 28.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci |
