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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 20 (Milton) , Major: 20 (Milton) Florida - Any: 20 (Milton) Major: 20 (Milton)
 
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#1203172 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 11.Oct.2024)
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024

Leslie remains a sheared tropical storm this morning. Based on
geostationary satellite imagery, the low-level circulation is still
exposed and limited bursts of deep convection in the southern
semicircle are moving southwestward away from the center.
Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates continue to trend downward
and the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt to represent a blend
of the final-T and CI numbers (T3.0/3.5) from TAFB and SAB.

The storm should continue to weaken during the next couple of days.
Model guidance agrees that the vertical wind shear will remain
moderate-to-strong, the mid-level humidities will gradually become
drier, and the sea surface temperatures will cool along the forecast
track. Leslie should lose its organized deep convection by Sunday,
if not sooner, based on simulated satellite imagery. There is still
the possibility the storm will take on some extratropical
characteristics in 48-72 h as well. For now, the NHC intensity
forecast still shows Leslie becoming a post-tropical cyclone over
the weekend and dissipating early next week.

Leslie is rounding the western edge of a subtropical ridge and has
turned northward at 9 kt. A turn to the north-northeast is
expected later today, followed by an acceleration to the northeast
and east-northeast over the weekend. The latest track forecast is
essentially the same as the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 25.5N 50.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 27.1N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 30.0N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 33.1N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 35.6N 37.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 13/1800Z 36.8N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 14/0600Z 37.5N 26.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci