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| #1203172 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 11.Oct.2024) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 Leslie remains a sheared tropical storm this morning. Based on geostationary satellite imagery, the low-level circulation is still exposed and limited bursts of deep convection in the southern semicircle are moving southwestward away from the center. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates continue to trend downward and the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt to represent a blend of the final-T and CI numbers (T3.0/3.5) from TAFB and SAB. The storm should continue to weaken during the next couple of days. Model guidance agrees that the vertical wind shear will remain moderate-to-strong, the mid-level humidities will gradually become drier, and the sea surface temperatures will cool along the forecast track. Leslie should lose its organized deep convection by Sunday, if not sooner, based on simulated satellite imagery. There is still the possibility the storm will take on some extratropical characteristics in 48-72 h as well. For now, the NHC intensity forecast still shows Leslie becoming a post-tropical cyclone over the weekend and dissipating early next week. Leslie is rounding the western edge of a subtropical ridge and has turned northward at 9 kt. A turn to the north-northeast is expected later today, followed by an acceleration to the northeast and east-northeast over the weekend. The latest track forecast is essentially the same as the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 25.5N 50.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 27.1N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 30.0N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 33.1N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 35.6N 37.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 13/1800Z 36.8N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/0600Z 37.5N 26.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci |
