|
Show Selection: |
| #1203249 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 11.Oct.2024) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 Leslie continues to be a sheared tropical cyclone, struggling to produce convection. The center of the system continues to be exposed at it is accelerating to the northeast within an unfavorable environment. The subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have come down some between 30-45 kt with the final CI value from TAFB, T3.0/45 kt. This is in good agreement with the satellite derived winds from the scatterometer pass earlier today. Thus, will keep the intensity steady at 45 kt with this advisory. The storm will remain in a hostile environment with strong vertical wind shear and dry air inhibiting convection over the system for the next day or so. In about 18-24 h the shear is forecast to decrease for a short-period of time, and model simulated satellite suggest that Leslie will be able to regain some convection near the center again, which will prolong the post-tropical transition. However, by 36 hours the shear will increase and Leslie will be crossing into cooler sea surface temperatures. This will all be occuring as a frontal boundary approaches Leslie,and the system will begin to acquire some extratropical characteristics, eventually becoming post tropical at that time. The NHC intensity forecast calls for the system to remain steady with some gradual weakening as the system becomes post-tropical in 36 h. Leslie has been accelerating towards the northeast, or 035/15 kt, between the flow of an approaching trough to the west and the subtropical ridge to the east. Leslie will continue to move northeastward then east-northeastward with an increase in forward speed through the weekend. The NHC forecast was nudged slightly poleward in the near term, with a slightly faster rate of forward motion, and lies near the simple consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 27.6N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 30.0N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 33.5N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 36.0N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 13/1800Z 37.2N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 14/0600Z 36.7N 25.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/1800Z 36.0N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly |
