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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 20 (Milton) , Major: 20 (Milton) Florida - Any: 20 (Milton) Major: 20 (Milton)
 
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#1203321 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 12.Oct.2024)
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2024

Leslie has held steady through the night. The storm has maintained
a small burst of deep convection near the low-level center, with
cold cloud top temperatures of less than -80 degrees C. While the
satellite intensity estimates have trended downward, the initial
intensity is held at 45 kt in deference to the earlier scatterometer
data.

The storm is accelerating to the northeast at 21 kt in the flow
ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough over the northwestern
Atlantic. On Sunday, Leslie should turn east-northeastward to
eastward and continue this motion through the remainder of the
forecast period. Model guidance has shifted northward with a slight
increase in forward speed this advisory cycle. The latest NHC
forecast has been nudged northward and now lies between the previous
prediction and on the southern side of the tightly clustered
guidance envelope. Leslie, or its remnants, is now expected to move
near or over the Azores late Sunday through early Monday.

Leslie has a few more hours in a marginal environmental. Later
today, deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast to steadily
increase and the storm is passing over the 26 degree C isotherm
towards cooler waters. Global models suggest Leslie will lose its
deep convection and merge with a frontal system in about a day. The
official forecast now reflects the timing of this transition. It
should be noted that while the models show a closed low pressure
area through 72 h, the circulation could degenerate into an open
trough before then due to the fast forward speed.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 31.3N 45.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 33.8N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 36.5N 36.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/1800Z 37.6N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0600Z 37.7N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 14/1800Z 37.1N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/0600Z 37.1N 16.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci