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| #1204168 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 18.Oct.2024) TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 The disturbance currently located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea has continued to increase in organization today, with persistent showers and thunderstorms occurring around a broad low-level circulation. Buoys and satellite-derived surface wind measurements indicate that the system has not yet become a tropical cyclone. However, it is becoming more likely that the system could become a tropical cyclone in the next day or so before it reaches the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. Therefore, the disturbance is being designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, with an initial intensity of 30 kt, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The center location remains uncertain due to the broad size of the circulation, and the initial estimate of the current motion is 300/6 kt. Steered by mid-level easterly flow, the system is expected to turn westward tonight and reach the coast of Central America on Saturday. Thereafter, it is expected to move inland before dissipating on Sunday. The NHC forecast is close to the simple and corrected consensus models. Conditions are generally favorable for modest intensification, with light vertical wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. However, the disturbance has less than one day before it moves inland. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and the official forecast indicates that the disturbance will reach low-end tropical storm status prior to landfall and then weaken before dissipating on Sunday. Key Messages: 1. An area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is expected to bring impacts from heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next day or two. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen as it treks westward through southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning tonight through Saturday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 17.5N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/0600Z 17.5N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 17.3N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 20/0600Z 17.2N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi |
