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| #1204201 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 18.Oct.2024) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF BELIZE ON SATURDAY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 86.1W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Belize City, Belize to Tulum, Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 86.1 West. The system is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Saturday night. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move inland along the coast of Belize on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is anticipated, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm before making landfall tomorrow. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread 4-8 inch rainfall amounts are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and the southern states of Mexico from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore flow near and to the north of where the center moves inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
