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| #1204244 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 19.Oct.2024) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 87.1W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning northward to Cancun. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 87.1 West. Nadine is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through today and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Nadine is forecast to make landfall along the coast of Belize late this morning or around midday, and then continue across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico late this afternoon into tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible this morning before Nadine makes landfall. Weakening is forecast to begin this afternoon once Nadine is inland, and the system is likely to dissipate over southeastern Mexico by early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) north of the center. A WeatherFlow station in Cancun, Mexico, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (81 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected with Nadine across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds near and to the north of where the center moves inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
