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| #1204290 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:15 AM 19.Oct.2024) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Nadine is very close to making landfall in Belize, near Belize City. The center is currently moving across the country`s barrier islands of Turneffe Atoll and landfall on the mainland will likely occur within the next hour. The sprawling tropical storm continues to slowly intensify, and a combination of objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates support increasing the maximum winds to 45 kt. Furthermore, radar data indicate that the structure of Nadine has improved and there are curved bands surrounding the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently in the northern portion of the storm, and they will likely reach the center soon. A Tropical Cyclone Update will be provided when the storm makes landfall. The storm is moving due westward at 7 kt, and the system is expected to continue accelerating in that direction during the next day or so. This motion should take Nadine across Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexico later today through Sunday. Nadine is expected to weaken after the core moves inland, and it will likely dissipate over southern Mexico by late Sunday. The remnants have a high chance of reforming in the eastern Pacific basin during the early to middle part of next week. Key Messages: 1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the warning area through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 17.3N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.3N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z 16.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Torres-Vazquez |
