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Hurricane Oscar expected to linger around Cuba and the Bahamas for several days
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 12 (Milton) , Major: 12 (Milton) Florida - Any: 12 (Milton) Major: 12 (Milton)
TS Oscar
ADV#12A 2:00 am EDT
22.3N 75.1W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Moving:
Nne at 9 mph
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#1204311 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 19.Oct.2024)
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
1800 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 70.6W AT 19/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 70.6W AT 19/1800Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 70.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 0SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 70.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN