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| #1204339 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 19.Oct.2024) TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 71.1W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 71.1W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 70.6W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N 72.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.0N 74.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 5SE 5SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.9N 74.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.2N 75.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.9N 75.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.1N 72.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 71.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN |
