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Hurricane Oscar expected to linger around Cuba and the Bahamas for several days
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 12 (Milton) , Major: 12 (Milton) Florida - Any: 12 (Milton) Major: 12 (Milton)
TS Oscar
ADV#12A 2:00 am EDT
22.3N 75.1W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Moving:
Nne at 9 mph
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#1204381 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 19.Oct.2024)
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
0300 UTC SUN OCT 20 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 71.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 5SE 5SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 74.8W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 5SE 0SW 5NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.6N 75.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.4N 76.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.2N 75.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.8N 74.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.0N 71.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 72.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART