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| #1204430 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 20.Oct.2024) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Nadine Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Mexican radar data and GOES-16 nighttime visible imagery show that Nadine still has enough structure to it for the system to remain a tropical depression at this time. The coverage of cold cloud tops on infrared imagery has certainly diminished over the past 6 to 12 h, although there are still some cold cloud tops over the center and in the southwest semicircle. The center of Nadine is moving over increasingly higher terrain of the Mexican state of Chiapas, with the peaks of some nearby mountains now as high as 5,000 ft above sea level. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest, or 255/12 kt. The forecast shows the system accelerating slightly and bending a bit more toward the southwest this morning. This motion would bring Nadine toward terrain of about 8,000 to 9,000 ft above sea level in about 6 hours. Terrain of that height is likely to break apart Nadine`s low-level circulation, which should cause the cyclone to dissipate later this morning. A remnant low position is provided at 12 hours for continuity, but Nadine will likely have dissipated by that time. Key Messages: 1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 16.8N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/1800Z 15.7N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen |
