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| #1204532 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 PM 20.Oct.2024) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 ...OSCAR BRINGING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 74.5W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 74.5 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and north is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba late Monday and cross the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected as Oscar interacts with the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and then moves across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). A weather station at Punta Maisi in eastern Cuba reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a gust of 81 mph (130 km/h) within the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas Monday into Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. Across the Turks and Caicos, an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Wednesday morning. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
